Jeff Kay's Draft Analysis:

 
2009 Draft
A little late again this year, I know, but the Draft Analysis is back. We've got one week under our belt, but I don't think it's time to hit the panic button for anyone. No one has a lock on a lot of stud players, and injuries that have happened seem relatively minor.
 
Last year I predicted Double Trouble #1 and Tropical Depressions #2. That didn't pan out so great. Thawville won thanks to a balanced draft and no major injuries. A high pick on Brees also helped. This went against the major trend of waiting a few rounds for a top QB.
 
Here are this year's projections...guaranteed to be wrong bu always interesting.
PROJ. FINISH TEAM COMMENTS
1 Blue Winged Olives Olives are my team to win it all this year though some cracks are developing. WR's are strong - even with Gonzalez hurt. Bowe was a great value in the 5th round and Jennings is solid. Two solid RB's in Pierre Thomas and Michael Turner allow a lot of flexibility going forward. Matt Ryan and Matt Schaub are solid quarterbacks to have and can be good trade bait if someone gets hurt. Only "fly" in the ointment is a weak DT in Carolina but that can be fixed with a wise Drop/Add. Overall, a very good draft.
2 Gaters I like this Gater team. For the second year in a row, Preet selects Darren McFadden. Maybe this year he will step up. Purple Jesus is always a top scoring threat. The overemphasis on Atlanta players is concerning but who can complain about Roddy White? The QB situation is very weak. Cutlet seemed more a product of Denver's system and I'm not sold on Flacco producing every week. Overall though, the Gaters will be much improved.
3 Felchville Firekings It's obvious the Firekings have been reading all the preseason rags stressing the need to get a stud WR or else you are hosed this year. They are probably right. Seeing some of these clowns on rosters this year in WR spots, drafting the Johnson WR's (Andre and Calvin) seemed prudent for Felchville. Westbrook falling to the late third round was a crime. Similarly, Rivers at #4 was a good value. Thomas Jones I like. Ronnie Brown I don't (he always seemed overrated on a crappy Miami team). There's some nice balance on defense (Titans) and even TE's (Carlson and Winslow). Enough to win the championship? No. Enough to win some big games this year? Absolutely.
4 Double Trouble At the time, it looked like a steal when Brad took McNabb in the 9th round, but a few broken ribs later, it looks like Double Trouble will be in need of a quality QB sooner than later. (Roethlisberger doesn't really scare anyone). Outside of QB, the rest of the DT squad looks reasonable. As is his M.O., DT has found some quality WR's among the scrap heap - Coston, Steve Smith, Edwards, and even Cotchery give good depth. MJD is a stud RB, and Marion "Ross" Barber may turn out to be OK on offense this year. Overall, Brad likes to make deals and a deep bench will allow him to continue that trend in 2009.
5 Havoc Congrats to Havoc and BWO for executing the first Draft trade in SWAMF history. The resulting picks may pan out. When you look at Havoc's team, you can see the emphases on quality RB's. Chris Johnson, Grant, Rice, Ward, and the JonesBoys are all solid. Fitzgerald is the best WR do no complaints there. Chad 85 is no lock for a rebound an Kevin Walter as a #3 WR is shaky. The glaring problem though is QB. Delhomme is crap and was benched in last week's game. Could Brett Favre be visiting Havoc soon for a workout? Eagles DT is fine (it was they who crushed Delhomme in week 1). Overall, Havoc will have some ups and downs, be wildly inconsistent and I predict, trade for a decent QB by Week 5.
6 Thawville Brees and Moss = studs. The rest of the team is a project, injury riddled or does not exactly instill fear in opponents. With no clear #2 WR, the collection of crap includes Ram favorite Big Game Torry Holy, DeSean Jackson, Donnie Avery, and Eddie Royal. Scared Yet? I thought not. The Salesmen probably bet too heavily on injuries to make the team viable - Bradshaw, James Davis, LeSean McCoy, and even Royal depend on a key injury for them to have value. Romo is a good #2 QB but you can only play one so he is a candidate for a trade sooner rather than later.
7 Jonesport Red Tide Two stud RB's anchor Jonesport, except when on of those anchors gets rusty and breaks. Such is the case with LT who is out now in Week 2. LT was risky to begin with - his injuries late last year slowed him down a lot. Speaking of injuries, lots of people are soured with Warner and his history of geriatric problems. The WR situation seems a little suspect - Welker catches a lot of balls, but he doesn't seem to put up a lot of fantasy points. Berrian was great last year, but Minnesota has so many WR weapons (half of them drafted by the Gaters) that one wonders if Bernard will be back. New Orleans is a crap shoot for WR's so Lance Moore is no lock for studdome. Red Tide's best picks are in the later rounds for value, Palmer, Daniels, Washington, Bears, and Shockey all were late round picks and just may end up starting on Jonesport...or your squad if the price is right.
8 Red Devils Sad that Inho missed the Draft, but he is a gamer and is vowing a fight this year. Last year, Inho missed the Championship by half a game in the standings. This year will be a tough fight but Brady and Steve Jackson are good starts. Boldin seems like an injury risk and the other WR's - Roy Williams, Hines Ward, and Derrick Mason don't scare anyone. Addai and Larry Johnson are candidates for comeback players of the year which is encouraging. Witten is a top TE and Giants are a top DT so all is not lost. Will be interesting to see how Inho wheels and deals to bring Red Devils into competition.
9 Tropical Depressions The Good: DeAngelo, Slaton, and Rodgers. The Bad: Hushman, Owens, Hester - basically WR's. Many owners chose to take WR's early given the lack of talent at the position. In fairness, only Dwayne Bowe looked like a better value taken in round 5 than Hushman - taken in round 4. Still, getting 5 points from your two WR spots each week will hurt TD. Rodgers has been hyped quite a bit this preseason, but the Packers didn't do well down the stretch last year and playing games in Green Bay in December doesn't seem to bode well for a QB. The rest of the TD brood looks like a lot of projects with limited upside - Ginn, Hightower, Moreno, and Coffee - and may be dumped by year end.
10 Wonder Worms The #4 and last of the "safe picks" in this year's draft went to WW and their pick of Matt Forte. That's about where the good news stops. While some picks are reasonable - Manning at #3 and Jackson at #5, the others are risky. Portis gets a horrific pounding and always seems to be injured (causing the frenzy every year for Ladell Betts pickups). Brandon Marshall is a whining thug, which in itself isn't bad but Kyle Orton is throwing the ball which is not encouraging. Marshawn Lynch is decent but having to wait four weeks for a time share back kind of stinks. The remaining characters don't seem to have much upside which means if WW is going to compete, they will need to be via the waiver wire.
Projected Final Rankings:
1. Blue Winged Olives
2. Gaters
3. Felchville Firekings
4. Double Trouble
5. Havoc
6. Thawville Deodorant Salesmen
7. Jonesport Red Tide
8. Red Devils
9. Tropical Depressions
10. Wonder Worms
 The views, predictions, projections, and opinions contained herein do not necessarily reflect those of the SWAMF Fantasy Football League or it's owners, The Historian, or Webmaster.

Last updated: 09/21/09

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